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« Typical Situation in These Typical Times | Main | FlashMob meets the Grid, part way »

April 4, 2004

Flattening the Technology Adoption Lifecycle

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Posted by Ross Mayfield

Geoff Moore's seminal book Crossing the Chasm is the foundation for technology marketing beause it provides the basis for timing and where to spend attention. Understanding the distribution of buyer and user psychodemographic profiles as deviations from the mean tells us what to build within a bell curve. But the bell curve may be changing into a power-law:
This has several implications:
  • More Visionaries -- as the fatter tail on the left implies, there are more innovators and eary adopters. Before serving pragmatists, be sure you have realized the full value of visionaries.
  • Influencers Matter -- Interdependence means that success in some segments may lead to others faster. Reference value is half of word of mouth.
  • Tornados are Dust Devils -- The slope of the early adopter segment may have declined.
  • Design for Scope and Span -- The ability to version the product for different situations and have it interface throughout the stack may have greater importance than facilitating economies of scale and speed.
I'm still flushing out these implications, but creating and competing in a market of greater interdependence may also call for one greater over-arching strategy -- hand over more control to users. This means both open interfaces for users as developers and more flexibility to adapt by non-developers.

Comments (2) + TrackBacks (0) | Category: social software


COMMENTS

1. Maciej Ceglowski on April 7, 2004 11:05 AM writes...

I initially thought this post was an April Fool's joke. But to my horror it says April 4.

A power law distribution does not magically flatten and bend in the middle, even in the New Economy. It just goes up and up, like the stock market. But it's fun to say "power law". And so visionary!

If you have any understanding of what you are talking about, let alone the faintest whisper of empirical data to back it up, I will eat my foot.

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2. Ross Mayfield on April 7, 2004 10:06 PM writes...

Its a different way of plotting it, from the Strategy + Business article. You can take up the foot eating with Booze Allen Hamilton.

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